Hi John,
As you say, it's more complex than that, but I think the exaggerated idea of how many tourists will come to Cumberland via the bike path has caused the politicians to make an anti rail decision and then fudge the numbers to bolster their case.
Web posts are stating that the bike path promoters have convinced the Cumberland Chamber of Commerce that 400,000 people will ride the bike path. The Baltimore sun recently used a figure of 300,000. Such numbers are patently absurd and may in fact be estimates for total rider ship over the entire trail, including local trips by residents. If so, these figures are being misinterpreted, either deliberately or accidentally by the trail promoters. Either way, the local pols are being fooled.
The original article in the Cumberland paper cited 5 year maintenance costs of $25 Million, including $8 Million for a new engine facility at City Junction. These numbers are grossly inflated. My feeling is these numbers have been advanced for the sole purpose of making the case that the railroad is "too expensive" to keep.
The MSTRP could no doubt supply us with the cost for their new 3 track steel building and their turntable, but I would bet it was way below $8 million. Likewise, the tunnel will have to be maintained for the bike path, as will the two biggest bridges. Only the two bridges above #9 switch are not on the bike path and they look to have been recently painted and their concrete abutments sealed. Rails and ties look to be in fairly decent shape over the entire line.
We need to get the real facts and start to fight back if we want to save this great railroad.
