Hi Steve,
I honestly doubt that 463 will never steam again.
My SWAG (Scientific Wild Assed Guess) at it would be (no brainer) that 484, 487, 488, 489 would be the first four repaired.
As I recall, 463 has a FRA passing boiler (or did I remember wrong?) so she would be next on the list. 497 would preceed 463 only if 463 did not have a code boiler and 497 did.
After 463 and 497 are repaired, I then think we will see 483 or 492 restored. If the traffic is great enough (probably some years away), we might see both.
494 and 495 are so far out in the future, I'd not plan on seeing them for 20 years at the absolute earliest.
The only way I'd see a demand for more than six locos in the rotation, would be if either the line to Alamosa were 3-railed or the grade west of Chama were rebuilt. Both are pie-in-the-sky wishes and I doubt either will happen. The most I'd expect to see happen would be restoration of the track to the SG and adding a 3rd rail to the old Antonito Depot.
The only advantage to going west of Chama or east (actually north by compass) of Antonito for the C&TS would be to allow winter operations - year round operations. The states and the commission can bearly afford the 64 miles they currently have so anything more is doubtful.
Laying a third rail from Antonito to Alamosa would probably scare the residents of Antonito. They might fear that the train would start at Alamosa and not stop at Antonito. I doubt that everyday tourists would want to ride the extra couple of hours from Alamosa to Osier and back.
Now I like the desert west of Antonito and a winter ride to Big Horn or even Sublette would be neat. However the problem (not insurmountable) is that Antonito is not set up for basing locomotives out of (this is to not end this sentance with a prepisition
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The other problem with the winter east end runs would be getting people to ride. I love visiting the desert but many just look at it as a wasteland and I doubt it could be made break-even.
So in the forseeable future, I'd expect to see the six troopers from Kyle days (463, 484, 487, 488, 489, 497) soldering on. 483, 492, 494, and 495 are a long way from being needed.
463 was originally thought to be a show loco - used for special occasions. As I understand it, during the Kyle era, it was decided to see how well 463 would fit into the rotation. Instead of letting 463 just sit and steam all day waiting for an emergency call, she went into the rotation on days when the loads did not require a K36. Earl or John Bush could address the frequency they saw the train size reqiring only a K36 and 463 could not be substituted.
Although the crew from that era is no longer with the C&TS, I do think that the current crew will use the operating patterns that worked best back then.
Unless something seriously happens to 463, 484, 487, 488, 489 or 497 to make it more expensive to repair than to restore 483 or 492, Don't sweat 463 or 497 not running.
Unless someone with a million dollars comes up and says I'll donate this money only if you restore (say) 495, I doubt 483, 492, 494, or 495 will run again anytime soon.
Hang in there guy.
Doug vV