Here's a better read. This is a 2014 paper that discusses the details of the modeling currently in use, along with the factors and assumptions. The particular paper was written using smallpox, which is fairly well understood, but makes reference to current virus epidemics. Try reading the abstract, the headings and skip to results unless you enjoy differential equations and matrix math.
[
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov]
SRK
Chris Webster Wrote:
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> A March 16, 2020 report from the Imperial College
> Covid-19 Response Team is summarized in this
>
[url=https://twitter.com/jeremycyoung/status/12
> 39975682643357696]informative twitter thread by
> Jeremy C Young[/url][/b].
>
> Young's thread has two important points I have not
> seen mentioned elsewhere:
> [list]
> [*]Expect the pandemic to last at least 18 months
> because that's how long it takes to develop a
> vaccine safe enough to innoculate all humans
> [*]Models that "flatten the curve" assume that all
> Americans over 70 will be social
> distancing[/list]
>
> The full report is here:
> [url=https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-col
> lege/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-Co
> llege-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf]Impact
> of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to
> reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand
> (PDF)[/url]
>
> Since Young is an unverified twitter user, I'll
> end by noting that his thread was recommended by
> [url=https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/124015248
> 4431237121]Andy Slavitt, a verified Twitter user
> who was the head of Medicare, Medicaid & ACA under
> Obama./url]