elminero67, I agree with most of opinion.
Without elaborating on my personal curriculum vatae, I will merely say that I am a Certified Fire Investigator, I am Chief Investigator and Investigation Division Commander for the largest Fire District in my State.
I disagree only with your confidence in accelerent detection. The Lobato fire presented lengthy fire duration with severe destruction of the combustible fuels, both being factors that would greatly compromise the probibility evidence of ignitible liquids could be identified. Additionally, the GC (gas chromatography) utilized in residue analysis might have problems differentiating a foreign accelerant from the typical components of wood preservatives. Additionally, it would be difficult to eliminate petroleum locomotive lubricants that would have accumulated on the deck ties over the years. Although there might be spike variances apparant, arguments of the presence of accelerants would only serve to confuse a jury.
You are 100% on point on the down slope winds. The night of the Lobato fire the recorded wind direction was from the north. The video captures
of the fire demonstrate down valley smoke travel. The down slope winds could have not only affected the lateral fire spread dynamics, but in limiting the vertical smoke/steam column, the winds would have also limited the visual presentation of the fire, likely impairing earlier recognition.
I similarly agree that a fugative coal ember could smoulder for an extended period of time, particularly if it was lodged in timber crevice
or between adjacent timber members.
Your comment about fire conditions are appropriate. The relative humidity on the day of the Lobato fire was in the teens.
Finally, I have read "arm chair" criticism of the State Fire Marshal Investigator's Report. While it would be possible to conduct an elaborate and expensive investigation employing computer fire modeling and extensive forensic inquiry, the most pressing fact remains that it is impossible to eliminate that a fugative coal ember could have caused the fire, therefore I consider the degree of inquiry and findings of the State Investigator to be appropriate.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/25/2010 10:42AM by John Wilke.