Sadly this is the situation that everyone is looking at. If you have a business dependent upon discretionary spending (all tourist or recreastional railroads), how do you plan for next year? Even if fuel is a $1 or $5 will the majority of the public be able to afford it?
Right now, I think that the most any tourist operation (rail or not) can reasonably expect is maybe at best to match 2008, but be prepared to reduce expenses to compensate for a 25% drop (hopefully not more).
It does not look good short term for most of the existing steam ops or any serious investment into new or expanding steam programs. Hopefully everyone will survive 2009 and begin rebuilding in 2010.