New steam locomotives will become more and more economically attractive to the extent the present existing locomotives are used up. Of course, a locomotive can be used indefinitely without getting used up, if it is maintained enough.
To me, the biggest issue facing the creation of replicas is the extent to which they actually are true replicas of historic locomotives. Certainly, we would expect to see welding replace rivets. Weldments might replace castings. But should new steam locomotives also incorporate the latest firebox and combustion technology? Processed fuel with computer controlled combustion?
The opposition between proper amount of modernization, fuel efficiency, and low emissions, versus the ability to provide a suitably historic experience, seems like the continental divide in the basic philosophies that guide the recreational / historical railroads.
RK