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Re: Monsoon season maybe here (Colo) in a week

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Dave Boyer

June 14, 2022 08:03AM

Registered: 16 years ago
Posts: 464

IanLK Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Forecast for Chama shows dry as hell until the
> weekend then the chance for rain gradually
> increases each day; hopefully that manifests as I
> too read that they expect the wind to change
> sometime next week

A very favorable discussion of an early monsoon from NWS ABQ this morning:

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A stronger than average polar jet, thanks largely to the effects of
a double-dip La Nina, is forecast to result in an upper-level
pattern that was once commonplace during monsoon seasons past but has
been quite elusive over the past 20 years or so. Westerlies strong
enough to force the Four Corners` or monsoon high east of NM. The
southerly flow between this high (forecast to be over the southeast
U.S. late this week into next) and closed upper- level lows over/near
the PACNW will lead to a predicted early start to the North American
Monsoon (NAM) late this week. Daily rounds of afternoon and evening
thunderstorms are expected Thursday through the weekend with southerly
flow at all levels of the atmosphere over NM. Widespread precipitable
water (PWAT) values of an inch or greater move in over the weekend
with locally heavy rainfall most likely Sunday and Monday. Storm
steering flow will send storms to the north and northeast around 20
mph. The good news it that there are no forecasted backdoor front
that will focus storms along the east slopes of the the Sangre de
Cristo mountains. The bad news is that steering flow doesn`t change
much Friday through the weekend with storms likely moving/training
over the same areas day after day. GFS and ECWMF agree that dry
westerlies likely won`t scour out monsoon moisture during the next 10
days. It`s an impressive early start to the NAM to say the least and
well predicted by the sub-seasonal ECWMF-IFS model.

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/14/2022 08:04AM by Dave Boyer.

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Subject	Author	Posted
Monsoon season maybe here (Colo) in a week	daninthedome	June 13, 2022 01:01AM
Re: Monsoon season maybe here (Colo) in a week . . .	Russo Loco	June 13, 2022 11:53AM
Re: Monsoon season maybe here (Colo) in a week	gregcoit	June 13, 2022 11:58AM
Re: Monsoon season maybe here (Colo) in a week	Samart	June 13, 2022 12:17PM
Re: Monsoon season maybe here (Colo) in a week	IanLK	June 13, 2022 02:34PM
Re: Monsoon season maybe here (Colo) in a week	Dave Boyer	June 14, 2022 08:03AM
Re: Monsoon season maybe here (Colo) in a week	WilliamDiehl	June 13, 2022 04:12PM
Re: Monsoon season maybe here (Colo) in a week	Greg Scholl	June 14, 2022 01:15PM
Re: Monsoon season maybe here (Colo) in a week	et&wnc	June 14, 2022 01:55PM

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