There is a difference between wild speculation and coming to a reasonable conclusion based on the best available information. It is obvious that you have gone to the trouble to research this in an effort both to prove and disprove your theory, and present the reasons behind your conclusion.
I can't add anything here except to congratulate for your efforts. It looks like a solid arguement to me, and is obviously subject to change if more information comes to light.
Any chance of posting some related pictures?