Heavy showers expected in the Durango area

The National Weather Service is forecasting some heavy showers over the next couple of days in the Durango area. That should help the fire-fighting effort on the 416 fire. The downside is the potential for run-off from burned areas and perhaps flash-floods. Even with that, I'd say the precip is probably welcome out there.

Here is an excerpt from the NWS Forecast Discussion out of Grand Junction from Friday afternoon:

Moisture increases substantially late this evening into Saturday
morning as PW values increase above an inch towards 1.2 inches
over southeast Utah and southwest Colorado. This moisture will
expand further northward with PW values of an inch and greater
for most of eastern Utah and western Colorado by Saturday
afternoon. PW is highest over the Four Corners with as high as 1.3
inches. The low levels will become saturated after midnight
tonight with this moisture increase with showers becoming more
widespread. Cloud cover associated with the remnants of TS Bud may
limit convective potential but still expect embedded thunderstorms
late Saturday morning into the afternoon and evening with
potential for heavy rainfall area-wide with showers and storms.
The biggest area of concern is the San Juans and Durango area as
any rain falling over burn scars from the ongoing 416 Fire and
Burro Fire will have high potential to cause flash flooding and
debris flows. With burn scars due to wildfires, the threshold for
flooding is much lower as it will take less rain than usual to
cause problems.

(PW is "Precipitable Water")

/Kevin Madore



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/15/2018 03:44PM by KevinM.